However, being temporarily in Germany means I wasn’t asked, and my friend decided this was not the time for an independent candidate in his chosen riding. Counsel he received said he would not win, but he would garner enough support to perhaps allow an unworthy candidate to squeak through. Maybe next time.
Mind you, my idea of a worthy candidate might not match yours. It seems to me that the incumbent Liberal government has been riddled with corruption for years (though 2018 is the first time anyone has been jailed for their misdeeds), but the voters of Ontario kept ignoring the problems and returning them to office.
At the outset of this campaign I expected the Liberals to win again, despite the premier’s personal unpopularity and Liberal fiscal irresponsibility. My guess was that the NDP don’t have much solid support and the Progressive Conservatives would find a way to self destruct, as they seem to have done in every election for the past 15 years. (That self destruction may again be a factor, as last Friday some family members filed a lawsuit against the PC leader. You have to wonder why they didn’t wait another week when the election would have been over.)
The Premier has already conceded defeat, and has suggested voters should make sure they elect a minority government, PC or NDP, leaving the Liberals holding the balance of power. Makes sense for someone who is so far down in the polls she almost has negative numbers. Though no-one has yet figured out how to strategically vote to ensure such an outcome in our current system
I had to wonder though if her appeal was just a smart political move. If the NDP and PC supporters think victory is assured, they might not make that concerted an effort to vote. We saw that with Hillary Clinton supporters in the 2016 US election, and look at how that turned out! This last-ditch Liberal appeal for a minority government may give them a boost in the only poll that counts, Election Day.
Not having followed the campaign all that closely from Germany, I am reluctant to make any predictions. I have no gut feeling that tells me who the victor will be. I do know that polling in recent years has become perhaps more art than science, so I won’t be surprised to wake up Friday morning and discover the Liberals have managed to hold on to power. Voters are an unpredictable bunch.