ITYS – II

For the first part of this post, check Thursday’s offering.

I have mentioned Donald Trump (and Hillary Clinton) a few times over the past 16 months of the American Presidential election campaign. I just looked and discovered he was mentioned in about 40 posts since the first one, which is a lot of attention given that this is not a blog about politics (no matter how much it may seem like it at times).

Watching television on election night I heard from journalists, politicos and commentators that no-one saw Trump’s rise coming, no-one anticipated his victory. I think I did, right from the outset. Though I will admit to wondering if he was serious about his bid, and now he is president-elect.

To make sure my memory wasn’t playing games, I went back and read those old posts. So you don’t need to do that I’m going to share a few excerpts to show that my Political Science degree and years of working in the field might just have given me some insights. Or maybe I got lucky. You be the judge. We pick things up in February of this year, when no-one expected Trump to be the nominee, despite some initial successes.

Maybe I was giving too much credit to American common sense. I thought Trump’s run would fade away when people had to actually put an X next to his name on the ballot. Instead, it appears that he is gaining popularity. I understand, yet remain appalled. – February 27, 2016

Assuming Trump ran as a third-party option and the Republicans chose someone else as their standard bearer. Would it alienate millions of voters who have been backing a Trump candidacy? Definitely.

It boils down to what is more important to those in the Republican leadership.

However I doubt that it is really a matter of principle for them. They oppose Donald Trump not because he is a bombastic blowhard with neo-fascist leanings, but because they don’t think he can beat Hillary Clinton. In that assessment I think they are wrong, though he may indeed be a bombastic blowhard with neo-fascist leanings.

If the Republican leadership really wants to stop Donald Trump they can do so. But they won’t. It’s not about principles, it’s all about power. – March 15, 2016

Trump should never have won the nomination.  Yet he did. He now should never win the presidential election. That is the perceived wisdom after all. But I’m not a big fan of perceived wisdom these days. – June 8, 2016

If people cast their ballot based on informed and reasoned consideration, then Donald Trump would have never had a chance at the US presidency, and Stephen Harper would still be Prime Minister of Canada. – June 22, 2016

In 2000 Al Gore received more votes than George W. Bush, but still lost the election. Trumps millions of disaffected voters will do him no good if he doesn’t win the Electoral College. If his support is clustered in a few states that he wins big, the final totals won’t matter. Clinton will win. For the Republicans and the Trump campaign the real lesson from Brexit is that they can’t take themselves too seriously. One campaign is not a harbinger of another. – June 27, 2016

Every opponent Trump has faced in the past year has been guilty of seriously underestimating him and his appeal. If Hillary Clinton and the Democrats do that, then trump becomes president. – June 28, 2016

The Democrats seem lost, or at least that is the impression I have. I seem to be getting regular fundraising requests from the Trump campaign. A few days ago the request was merely a copy of a Clinton fundraising letter talking about how Trump was ahead in the polls. I couldn’t believe any strategist would send out such a statement of weakness from the supposed frontrunner, but online research convinced me it was genuine. Somebody doesn’t know what they are doing, and it isn’t the Trump team. – July 29, 2016

If Trump can sow doubts about Clinton’s suitability, her past policies, her platform and even her health (which became a legitimate campaign issue earlier this month when her campaign chose to conceal her pneumonia), then he vaults ahead in the polls. – September 26, 2016

I have much more to say about the campaign, I wrote two posts this week that were post-election analysis, but I get the impression people need a rest from the  Trump Show. Emotions are still pretty raw in the USA, and there is a need for healing. Rehashing the election won’t contribute to that. Maybe I’ll save them for his inauguration in January.

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3 comments

  1. Arts department.

  2. Good observations. I wouldn’t call politics a science

    1. If it isn’t then I was duped by my alma mater. I spent a lot of time and money getting a good education in political science, and it seems to be working.

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