I’ve never done it before, but tonight I expect to watch the returns in the US midterm elections. Some of them anyway. Even though I don’t have a vote.

I am curious as to the outcome. Mostly, I want to see if my gut feeling about this election is correct.

According to all the polls, the Democrats should win control of Congress. President Donald Trump’s popularity is at an all-time low. Republican candidates are being blamed for Trump. Conventional wisdom says the Democrats will win majorities in both houses of Congress.

Of course, conventional wisdom had Trump losing the presidential election in 2016 and 2024. The polling numbers may be accurate, but they don’t tell the whole story.

What we don’t know is who has been polled, and who refuses to answer pollsters’ calls. My guess is that those leaning Republican, for a number of reasons, might be reluctant to reveal that fact to those who are asking the questions.

They may not even be willing to divulge that to family or friends. Who wants to admit they like Trump or the Republican Party? But the ballot box is secret. And the issues are complicated.

It must be tough for pollsters to discern a national trend for a non-presidential election. The local candidates are often more important than the leader. After all, the Democratic Party doesn’t even have a leader – the US system doesn’t work that way.

There are other factors to be considered besides polling numbers that may not reflect reality. Republicans are traditionally the minority party. To win election they have become very adept at identifying supporters and ensuring that they vote.

The Democrats are not as good at that. Just ask Hillary Clinton, who would have been elected President in 2016 if the party had managed to get her supporters to the polls.

Will those who told the pollsters they were voting for the Democrats this time actually cast a ballot? Or is their support at about the same level as liking something on Facebook? At this point we don’t know.

I have spent very little time in the US the past few years and consume very little US media. I have no idea what is going on, beyond what I read. Which doesn’t stop me from having an opinion. even if there isn’t sufficient data to justify it.

Logic tells me to expect a big Democratic win. My gut says the Republicans will retain the Senate at least and possibly the House of Representatives as well.

The polls don’t tell the whole story. I’m going to go out on a limb and say the gut is the right one. We will find out soon enough.