The Next Prime Minister

I’m a little surprised. I had expected the Russians (or the Americans) to hack into the Liberal Party’s computers and disrupt the leadership vote that was to choose a new leader for the party, who would become the Prime Minister designate.

The announcement that Mark Carney would inherit Justin Trudeau’s crown was somewhat anti-climactic. The party establishment was backing him, even though he had never held elected office. Two possible contenders who would have attracted a lot of votes were disqualified. It was going to be either Carney or Chrystia Freeland, and the party wasn’t going to chose the person who stuck the metaphorical knife in Justin Trudeau’s back, even if they agreed with the move. Karina Gould and Frank Baylis? They were never serious contenders anywhere except in their own families.

Carney may go down in the history books as the answer to the trivia question: “what Prime Minister had the shortest term in Canadian history?” That won’t be the case if he manages to stave off an election until the fall, but the buzz around Ottawa the past few weeks was that Carney was confident enough to take a gamble, to call an election before he had any experience at the job or elected office.

I have some thoughts on the wisdom of that, but those will wait for another day or two. I don’t want to take the risk of influencing him one way or another.

This Liberal leadership race was different from any other before it. The candidates didn’t run against each other, or even against Justin Trudeau and his decade of policy failures. They didn’t present much in terms of new policy ideas, and they downplayed the past decade for which they have responsibility. As far as they were concerned, the only question was who was best able to take on Donald Trump.

The logical answer to that question should have been Chrystia Freeland. She has held senior cabinet positions and has extensive experience in dealing with Donald Trump. He doesn’t like her, but it could be argued he doesn’t like any women, especially strong ones. But, as I said, it was never going to be Freeland.

If Carney calls an immediate election it will be because he thinks Canadian voters have collective amnesia and have forgotten the past ten years. After all, Justin Trudeau was on pace to lead the Liberals to an historic loss. It wasn’t just him, it was his policies that Canadians were rejecting in poll after poll.

The Liberal strategy is that maybe, if they change the jockey, their horse will still win the race. They are hoping that a new face is all it takes, since they don’t appear to have any new ideas.

It is a cynical view of the public. They think they can fool the people. (Which I suppose just makes them politicians.) And they may be right.

After all, we are not that unlike Americans, who showed their collective amnesia by the millions in 2024. How else can you explain returning Donald Trump, a convicted felon who promised to sow chaos, to the presidency.

Mark Carney, like Donald Trump, may think he can put one over on the electorate. After all, he got 85% of the party vote and won easily on the first ballot. Who am I to say he is wrong?

One comment

  1. […] did have a path to electoral victory that I mentioned here previously without giving details. I didn’t want to give him any […]

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