Friday midnight came and went with no deal. The US is imposing what it hopes will be crippling tariffs on Canadian industry. Canada will retaliate.

It is an article of faith in America’s civil religion that no-one can beat them in a trade war. Donald Trump has made it very clear to other countries that it isn’t going to happen.

If course, no-one has any desire to start a trade dispute with the USA. Trade hassles are bad for business. But what Trump doesn’t seem to understand is that there are no winners in a trade war.

His latest tariffs are expected to cost the American economy a trillion dollars. Yes, the hit on Canada’s economy will be considerable, but no-one is going to blame the Canadian government for America’s attempt at bullying. Canadians are willing to pay higher prices to remain sovereign.

Retaliation is a foregone conclusion. We all know that when you cave to bullies it just encourages them. Trump doesn’t seem to grasp that he is uniting Canada’s population in ways never seen before. And the Liberal government, if it wants to survive politically, will have to respond robustly to Trump’s latest attent at world domination.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the Ukrainian government responded in a surprising way. Military targets were limited to only those Russians operating within Ukraine’s borders. Hitting back at targets in Russia was not on the table.

As the war has dragged on, that strategy has changed. Military targets in Russia are indeed being attacked, though not the indiscriminate killing of civilians that has characterized the Russian assault. The Russian people are now beginning to realize just what sort of disaster their leadership is bringing upon them.

So too, Canada’s response to 18 months of American economic assault has been tempered. Taking American alcohol off Canadian shelves is more symbolic than an attempt to disrupt the American economy. Though it has caught the president’s attention. Liquor manufacturers are feeling the pinch and don’t feel they are getting value for their campaign donations.

In the short term tariffs hurt the country that levies them, as they bring higher prices for consumers. The long term theory is that either local producers will spring up or companies will relocate. That takes more time than Trump may have.

And he may have miscalculated the resolve of the Canadian people. After all, outside of energy products, we import a lot more from the US than we export. rightly or wrongly, these tariffs are seen as unfair, an expression of pique from a dictator unused to people standing up to him.

Canadians are wondering if perhaps it is time to hit the bully where it hurts. Given that Donald Trump has shown he doesn’t care about the American people, why should it be up to Canadian politicians to protect them from the consequences of voting for someone with no respect for the law and no understanding of economics? Maybe energy products, previously exempt from tariffs, should be where the Canadian government turns its focus.

Friends have told me that cutting off Canadian energy exports to the US would be seen as an act of war, and the US would be sure to invade. Given that Trump has already announced his plans to violate international law and annex Canada, what do we have to lose? Also, Canada would be easy to invade, but very difficult to conquer.

Cutting off the flow of Canadian oil and gas to the US would see prices rise at American pumps. My guess is a doubling from the current $4.00 a gallon to $8.00 a gallon. And that is just a mild move – the US has its own production, plus it is stealing Venezuela’s oil, so they could probably survive without Canadian gas..

Electricity would be another matter. New York City and much of the US easterm seaboard is powered by Canadian hydroelectric power. If those lines are cut, it is not unrealistic to expect that people would be freezing in the dark. Am American invasion would just make the situation worse, as Canadian patriots would take the system offline. The US Army isn’t big enough to guard all that transmission wire.

Would Canadians suffer in such as scenario? As much as, or maybe even more than Americans. But if voters acted rationally, Brexit would never have passed and Donald Trump would be a fading reality TV star.

The pressure on Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to protect Canada’s interests and make a fair trade deal has never been higher. Given that the US hasn’t managed to subdue Iran in eight months of bombing, I’m not sure even trump wants to get his armies involved on yet another front.

My guess is that there will be a deal both countries can live with sooner as opposed to later. Nobody wants a protracted trade war. But I have been wrong before.

Do I expect it to come to that? No. But the age we live in means that such scarios are no longer fantasy. Which is a shame.