He’s selling himself as an outsider, despite being one of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s closest advisors. He’s never run for public office, but thinks he can save the Liberal Party from self destruction if he is given the too job.

Mark Carney is the favorite to win the party leadership, become Prime Minister and lead the Liberals in the next election. With the party polling record low numbers, I had thought he would sit this one out and wait until next time. I was wrong.

Apparently he feels he has what it takes to make Canadians forget about the nightmare that has been Justin Trudeau. (Not that Trudeau was seen as a nightmare at first, but times have changed.) You have to admire his confidence.

Carney has toyed with the idea of elected office for years. He has stellar credentials as governor of the central banks of two G-7 countries. Unlike Trudeau, he knows hia way around a balance sheet.

Starting his political career with the top job may be a stretch, but Carney obviously feels he has the right stuff. After all, he has started in top jobs before, how different can politics be?

Having met the man and been impressed, I understand his confidence, even if in this case it may cross the line into hubris. He has a politician’s natural charm (like Trudeau) and he understands how economies work (unlike Trudeau).

I’m a political strategist. I can see a path for Carney to stave off the imminent electoral defeat that was about to happen to Justin Trudeau. (If you want details email me and I will let you know my rates – this is one of the times I’m not giving away free samples.) Whether he can figure it out is unknown at this point.

It is significant that one of his first moves as Prime Minister will be to axe the consumer carbon tax. Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has made that his mantra for the last year, calling for a carbon tax election. In axing the tax, Carney will remove a potential election-loser, while at the same time gutting Justin Trudeau’s signature environmental policy. Not that the tax had anything to do with the environment, but Trudeau seems to have convinced himself that it did. (If Carney doesn’t win, his main rival for the job, Chrystia Freeland is also intends to axe the tax she blindly supported for years.)

First of course, Carney has to be elected as leader by Liberal Party members, but that seems to be a foregone conclusion. Freeland, has spent the last decade as Trudeau’s deputy – even Liberals know she is toxic to voters.

Carney’s candidacy is a risky gamble though. It isn’t just the carbon tax or Justin Trudeau that has turned Canadians against the Liberal Party. There’s a smorgasbord of failed policies and broken promises over the past decade. Ten years is a long time for a Canadian government to last. Changing leaders may not be enough if the people truly want change.

I’m sure Carney has thought about all of this and decided it is worth the prize. He gets to be Prime Minister for at least a short time, something that few people accomplish.

Today many, maybe even most, Liberals see him as the party’s savior. In the heat of an election campaign he may find out that Liberal perceptions are not enough.