Inauguration Day – Take A Deep Breath

Or maybe buckle your seatbelts. It is going to be a bumpy ride.

Donald Trump is being sworn in today as the 47th President of the United States. He has promised to start his term with hundreds of executive orders that will reshape America and its relations with its neighbors. If he keeps his promises (always a question where politicians are concerned) the fallout from this one day may last years.

I’m taking a “wait and see” approach. After all, there is nothing I can do to restrain the president’s worst impulses. He’s already a lame duck – he can’t run for re-election. He can do what he likes, and if the voters are upset it doesn’t matter. Until 2026, when the Democrats retake control of Congress – if indeed they do.

Speculating on what Trump will or will not do is a waste of energy. We’re going to find out soon enough. Whatever he does, there are questions that need to be asked, both inside and outside the USA.

For Americans, the question remains on how well the structure of government set up in the 18th century, works in the 21st century, The founding fathers wanted an end to tyranny, so they set up a system with checks and balances.

But they left some loopholes that Trump can exploit, effectively creating a potential dictatorship. That isn’t my word, Trump said it. America wasn’t supposed to be like that.

Up here in Canada our leaders have to figure out how to respond if Trump keeps his promise of tariffs and a trade war. He is gambling that we won’t respond with more than token counter-tariffs. While he may not know what a trade war with Canada could mean, there will be people in his administration who understand how trade works and how our two countries’ economies are joined. Maybe they will have some influence.

The US imports a lot of energy from Canada. Canadians are in an ugly mood after months of Trump threats, and many are suggesting we should just turn off the taps on all that subsidized oil and gas we sell to the US. That may be an idle threat – the Americans could probably find other providers, so there might not be much impact.

I don’t think though it would be as easy to replace the hydroelectricity that flows across the border form Quebec, lighting up New York City and much of the eastern seaboard. Many years ago Alberta Premier Ralph Klein, in an energy dispute with Ottawa, suggested it was time to “let the eastern bastards freeze in the dark.” Canadians may soon be repeating those words, directing them at our southern neighbor.

What would Trump do if the lights go out in New York City? My guess is invade Canada. Would the US military would consider that a lawful order. My guess is yes.

I don’t really expect that to happen, but with Trump anything is possible, As I said, buckle your seatbelts, it is going to be a bumpy ride.

2 comments

  1. Neil Abramson's avatar
    Neil Abramson · · Reply

    In my opinion, everyone in Canada is running around like Chicken Little, shouting out that the sky is falling. Our government has a retaliatory plan in phases of response, and has publicly stated it for deterrence effect. Canadians are the majority in favour of resistance. If the US declares economic war on Canada, we will have to accept they are no friends of ours. We should sell all our oil and rare earth minerals to the Chinese or the EU and no longer to the Americans. And we should build a wall at the border (like Trump’s wall with Mexico – and let him pay) to keep all the American refugees out. We should either join the EU or get free trade with the UK, and leave the CUSMA/NAFTA. And we should build up our armed forces to deter aggression against us.

    The US is a Jekyll and Hyde ally, totally unreliable. We need to stop relying on them. They are utterly unreliable and dangerous if we expect their support.

    1. Lorne Anderson's avatar

      I like the idea of joining the EU.

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