I think Donald Trump will win the US presidential election. I’m going with my gut on this one.

In theory no Republican should ever be elected to the top job in the USA – the Democrats have a considerable numerical advantage. But the Republicans have learned how to leverage their numbers and make sure their supporters actually vote. That may make the difference this time around.

It has been an unusual campaign, and I haven’t followed it closely. Headlines have told me what I need to know. Usually that information has been depressing. It is sad to see what the beacon of democracy has become.

Kamala Harris could still win of course. The polling numbers are so close it could go either way. But I don’t think she’s going ro pull it off.

Maybe if Joe Biden had decided earlier he wasn’t up to a second term the results would be different. Harris certainly suffered from not having gone through the testing that is the primary system. In late July she was the only possible choice for the Democrats, but maybe not the right one.

Unless she wins. Then her coronation by the party will look brilliant, Certainly her fundraising has been, but money may not be enough.

Trump’s campaign has been a disaster, which reflects the candidate. A convicted felon facing multiple charges still, an election denier with questions about his fitness to serve for a number of ither reasons – and Americans are voting for him by the millions.

The campaign doesn’t matter. Policies don’t matter. Character doesn’t matter. Truth doesn’t matter. All that matters is Trump. Welcome to 21st century America.

It wasn’t just the COVID-19 pandemic, though that plays into the angst of our times. Rapid societal change has created an anger that extends far beyond the older lower educated white males that are Trump’s natural constituency. He is the ultimate anti-politician when people are longing for someone to stand up to the establishment and tear down the system.

That Trump is the establishment doesn’t matter. That he apparently is in it only for his own benefit and not to serve others, doesn’t matter. He is promising turmoil and chaos, and that is what the people, at least many of them, think they want. Consequences be damned.

Which makes it tough for Harris, whose only clearly articulated policy position seems to be that she is not Donald Trump. Yes, she has other ideas and policies, but they are all secondary. That just may not be enough.

Can America survive four more years of Donald Trump? From here it looks like it probably won’t have a choice. Don’t you hope I am wrong?