After the Ayatollah, what next? Who rules Iran? What will the government look like?

With internet and media blackout it is tough to get reliable information. The latest protests seem to have been mostly crushed, with the government killing at least 3,000 protestors. Some estimates I have seen put that number at 10,000.

Does a government that kills citizens peacefully protesting against its policies have any legitimacy? How many dead protestors does in take in Tehran (or Minneapolis) before the country starts to crumble?

At some point in Iran, Islamic rule will end. What comes next?

We in the west naturally think a democracy. But what does that look like in a country that has never had a democratic government? Who is in charge until elections can be held? Who will be allowed to run for office? Will those who supported the old regime be eligible to run? Can you name an Iranian opposition leader? I thought not.

Yes, there is the crown prince, who fled with the family when his father was deposed as Shah in 1979. Is he a unifying figure? I’m not sure.

When the Shah went into exile Iranians celebrated. Admittedly the son may not be the father, but there are still many Iranians who will not favor the return of the monarchy; the memories of that administration’s oppression are still too fresh, even after 46 years has passed.

Will the country descend into tribalism? Will the Kurdish minority declare their independence? Will the UN step up and administer the country until elections can be held. That would be a new role for the UN, one it may not know how to handle.

If there was organized opposition, the recent round of protests may have had more of a chance of success. Until someone credible steps forward for the people to rally around, I think Iran will continue to see periods of repression with occasional spontaneous protests that are brutally suppressed by the Islamic authorities desperate to retain their power. No matter how many people they have to kill to do so.