it seems silly to call tonight’s US presidential debate the most consequential event of the 2024 election cycle, but these days you never know.

Unlike the debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in June, it is unlikely tonight will see either candidate will be forced out of contention due to their performance. Republicans though are probably worried. Kamala Harris is no Joe Biden.

Trumps advisors are probably still trying to decide whether he should remain presidential and discuss policy, or make his attacks more personal. There is a huge risk either way.

Trump doesn’t seem to have much grasp on policy issues. He knows what he is against, and to a lesser degree what he is for, but articulating it is another matter. Everyone wants to improve the economy, but how? Trump’s economic policies for example, at least the ones I have heard, seem to me to be more likely to hurt than help the average American.

Does he really want to go down that road with someone who has been part of an administration with a generally favorable economic record? Harris probably has facts and figures ready on just how much Trump’s tariffs will cost each American.

Trump also runs a risk if he makes things personal. To suggest Harris isn’t “black” enough, as he has already done, is more likely to annoy people than win votes.

And if he starts free associating, whether on policy or personality, he will probably sound incoherent. He should avoid giving Harris any opportunity to question his mental competence. He may have looked sharp compared to Biden, but that wasn’t saying much. Like Biden, he too has shown signs of mental deterioration.

Weirdly enough, Trump’s most effective attack may be in challenging the legitimacy of Harris as a candidate. She wasn’t chosen by primary ballot, she was acclaimed. The palace coup conspiracy theories, because of the way the US system is structured, don’t sound that far fetched.

For Harris, all she has to do is sound presidential, show a firm grasp of policy, and wait for the opportunity to skewer Trump. She was a criminal prosecutor, she should be able to find his weaknesses. If she can’t, she was the wrong choice.

She has a unique opportunity to use Donald Trump’s words against him. Trump, as anyone who has listened to him for any length knows, is frequently incoherent. When he goes off on one of his rambles, all Harris needs to say is ” I don’t know what he just said and I don’t think he does either.”

Those were the words Trump used in June when debating Biden. They had a devasting effect on Biden’s campaign. I’m hoping Harris’ team has prepped her to use them.

It would be the highlight of the debate. I must admit though that I don’t expect it – too many political strategists miss the obvious. They should have hired me for debate prep.

In what is essentially a two-party system, we know either Trump or Harris will win in November. Tonight we may get a clearer picture of who Americans will choose.