Democrats are meeting in Chicago to anoint Kamala Harris as their flag bearer in the 2024 American presidential election. Despite recent polls and record fundraising, I’m not convinced she can beat Donald Trump.

Since Harris has replaced Joe Biden as the presumptive nominee there has been a groundswell of support and excitment. It reminds me of someone getting a lot of “likes” on Facebook.

It is easy to click. But likes don’t always translate into votes on election day.

Trump, given his history and personality, should never have been considered as a candidate in this election. That Republicans made him an overwhelming choice is a sad commentary on the state of American democracy, and on America itself.

He was on track for an easy win against Joe Biden. I’m not sure changing the name at the top of the ticket is enough to change that, though it might make the Republicans work a little harder.

Trump lies about everything, but his supporters don’t seem to care. He is a convicted felon facing multiple criminal charges, but that doesn’t matter to his millions of fans He is their messiah, and any attempt to require him to be truthful is aeen as religious persecution.

I’m not sure Harris can puncture that aura. I hope I am wrong.

I remember though that in 2020 she couldn’t beat Joe Biden for the Democrats’ presidential nomination. While today she is obviously better suited than Biden for the rigors of campaigning, is she capable of shifting voters’ intent?

Sure, Harris’ polling numbers are better than Biden had this time last month. But where has the increase come from? That is the key question, one that hasn’t been answered in the news stories I have seen.

Popular vote isn’t the determining factor in an American presidential election. It is Electoral College votes. Those are assigned by state, and for the most part when you win the popular vote in a state, you receive its Electoral College votes. You can win by a million votes, or just one, and it makes no difference.

I suspect that the bump in Harris’ support comes in places like her home state of California. The Democrats were always projected to win comfortably there. An extra million votes might look good in a national poll, but won’t affect the Electoral College outcome.

The Republicans know that. Demographically they are the smaller party. They win national elections by voter identification and making sure their supporters vote. They would have preferred to run against an obviously infirm Biden – but they still think they can beat Harris.

Harris’ poll numbers will rise again before the convention is over. The media coverage given a political convention practically guarantees that. But August numbers probably don’t mean that much. In August 2016, Hillary Clinton was ahead of Trump. We know how that turned out.

Trump has somehow managed to touch the American psyche in ways seldom if ever seen before. To a people feeling alienated, he offers the illusion of hope. People want to believe his lies.

There’s still more than two months until Americans go to the polls. Things can change.

The Trump-Harris debate on September 10 may be as important to the Democrats as the June 27 debate between Biden and Trump was. Maybe Harris can break through and expose Donald Trump for what he really is.

But those gathered in Chicago this week to crown Kamala Harris as the new Democratic Party nominee need to remind themselves that, despite all the glitz, at this point nothing has really changed.