As Canada celebrates it’s 157th birthday today, thoughts are still turning to the American presidential election and its potential influence on our political future.

The missing word from the June 27 US presidential debate was Canada. Neither candidate mentioned America’s neighbor to the north.

We Canadians are used to being ignored by American politicians. Most of the time that is a good thing.

But we do follow American presidential politics. And the biggest Donald Trump supporter in Canada is Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

If you don’t follow Canadian politics, that makes no sense. Trudeau’s political philosophy is far left. Trump, if he actually had a political philosophy he could articulate, is on the American right. Trump is on record as having no use for Trudeau (I won’t repeat the insults).

The animosity is mutual. But politics makes for strange bedfellows. And Trudeau desperately wants Trump to be the next president of the USA.

Trudeau is trailing in public opinion polls. Badly. people want him gone. If not today, then tomorrow.

Even some of his MPs have called on him to step aside for the good of the party. As have former cabinet ministers. (Current cabinet ministers, perhaps mindful of the huge pay cut if they get booted from that job, have been generally supportive.)

All the experts say there is nothing Trudeau can do to regain the liking and trust of the Canadian electorate. But he has come back before from low polling numbers, and he is hoping for an issue that will really supporters and undecideds to his side. He is hoping for a Donald Trump victory.

Trudeau (and many in his party) feel that by painting the Opposition Conservatives with a Trumpian brush, they may be able to persuade Canadians to re-elect their government. Canadians are generally more Democrat than Republican in their philosophical leanings, and would prefer Joe Biden to Donald Trump as the US president, even though historically the relationship between the countries is better for Canada under Republican administrations.

So Justin Trudeau wants Donald Trump to be triumphant in November, to give him someone to run against in 2025. He doesn’t want the campaign merely to be a choice between himself and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre – Poilievre is pretty popular these days. (Trudeau may also have forgotten that while Canadians when polled prefer Biden to Trump, they also prefer Trump to Trudeau. Maybe running against Trump won’t help him.)

Trudeau’s problem may be one of ego – he thinks he can win because he’s never lost an election. It is a trap many politicians easily fall into. And it isn’t like he has a fallback job to go to.

The best think for his party would be for Trudeau to call an early election and take the inevitable electoral defeat. That would give a new leader four years to rebuild the party.

If Trudeau steps down and is replaced this year. my guess is that in the 2025 election the voters will still punish the new Liberal leader for nine years of Justin Trudeau. The memory of the past decade will be too fresh.

If Joe Biden had performed better in last week’s debate, perhaps Justin Trudeau would be spending this Canada Day contemplating his political future. Biden’s failure has given Trudeau hope – even if it is irrational.

The fireworks are yet to come.