Eight years ago he was the underdog,  his candidacy  somewhat of a joke. He’s still somewhat of a joke, but definitely not the underdog.

As the first debate of the 2024 US presidential election gets underway tonight, Donald Trump is the frontrunner. So much so that he won’t bother to show up tonight to face the other candidates or the American public.

After all, he’s got nothing to win tonight. Trump is a polarizing figure within the party and the country. Everyone knows where he stands. Very few people would have no opinion on his suitability for the presidency. Appearing with other potential candidates is hugely risky: they might appear presidential, he might make a fool of himself.

Not that he hasn’t done that in the past, and it doesn’t seem to affect his popularity. Donald Trump is the Justin Trudeau of American politics: people are willing to vote for him despite the personal and political failings. It seems to be an almost religious devotion.

I’m not convinced Trump will be the Republican nominee next year. I’m hoping party members will come to their senses. Mind you, that’s what i said in 2015. Perhaps I am delusional

In 2016, my impression was the Democrats nominated possibly the only candidate that Donald Trump could beat. In 2024, perhaps the only candidate Joe Biden could beat would be Donald Trump. Biden may be past his prime – but voters worried about a second Trump presidency will flock to him, including quite a few Republicans.

Instead of showing up for the debate, Trump has granted a media interview which, as I understand it, will be aired at the same time. You can guarantee he will claim that more people paid attention to his words than to the other candidates debating each other. He may even be right – Americans probably aren’t paying much attention fifteen months before the vote.

Eight years ago this month, as Trump took part in his first debate, I wrote “the media don’t take his candidacy seriously. That may be a mistake.” I also noted that “the media may portray Donald Trump as a buffoon who has no chance of winning the nomination, one who would be embarrassed by the Democrats if indeed he somehow managed to become the Republican presidential candidate, but I wonder if that is accurate.” Back then I didn’t think he was really serious about becoming president, but was gathering footage for a reality show.

Watching his performance in the White House for four years I think I was right. Trump was not and I’d say still not serious about becoming president. Which doesn’t mean he won’t win the Republican nomination.

He has displayed little understanding of the demands of the job or the duty the president has to the country.  While American democracy was in trouble before he ran, he managed to make things much worse, not better. Four more years of Donald Trump would be four more years of the same.

Logically Joe Biden should win in a landslide if he faces Donald Trump in November 2024. Elections though, aren’t always logical..

As a reality TV show, another Trump presidency would be entertaining. As reality, perhaps not so much.